Fantasy Football Draft Value - Drafting for Fantasy Football Value
I want you to buy into fantasy football draft value right away, so I'm going to lead this article off with a drafting for value example:
Your league has 12 teams and uses a serpentine draft format(i.e. owner that picks last in the 1st round, picks first in the 2nd round)
It's the fifth round
You're picking 9th which means that you will pick 4th in the sixth round. So there will be six players taken in-between your next two picks.
So far you have drafted 2 RBs and 2 WRs. You still have one starting WR position to fill.
You are considering taking your starting QB with your next pick
Your league has 12 teams and uses a serpentine draft format(i.e. owner that picks last in the 1st round, picks first in the 2nd round)
It's the fifth round
You're picking 9th which means that you will pick 4th in the sixth round. So there will be six players taken in-between your next two picks.
So far you have drafted 2 RBs and 2 WRs. You still have one starting WR position to fill.
You are considering taking your starting QB with your next pick
as several other owners, including two of the three owners that pick after you in the 5th round, have already drafted a QB.
Here are the next 3 QBs & WRs available on your draft sheet:
QB1 - 280 projected fantasy points
QB2 - 277
QB3 - 275
WR1 - 130
WR2 - 105
WR3 - 104
So if you were fully intent on drafting a QB with your next pick, you would most likely select QB1 and not even glance at the available WR. That is a poor draft strategy and here's why:
The projected drop-off between QB1 and QB3 is 5 fantasy points.
The projected drop-off between WR1 and WR2 is 25 fantasy points.
It's unlikely that 2 of the 3 owners that pick after you in the 5th round(and before you in the 6th) will select another QB. Those owners will probably be looking to fill out their starting corps of WR.
So why hand one of those owners the last WR before a large drop-off in fantasy points when you can scoop him up and then come back in the 6th round and still get QB1 or a QB of almost equal potential? Let's play the numbers game:
Let's say you take QB1 in the 5th round. The next owner selects WR1. 5 more picks go by. WR3 happens to still be available so you grab him with your 6th round pick. Add up the fantasy points to get 384.
Now let's say you took WR1 in the 5th round. The next owner takes QB1 as his starting QB. As expected the next 5 picks go by with no more QBs taken. You take QB2 with your 6th round pick. Add up the fantasy points to get 407.
So it's obvious that you would be building a stronger squad by selecting WR1 with your 5th round pick. The question is how to recognize these types of situations ahead of time so that you are ready to make this kind of move when it's your turn to make a pick. The answer is fantasy football draft value.
The fantasy football value system:
1) Compares players of the same position.
2) Compares all players from all positions available in a fantasy draft.
3) Utilizes the following variables:
a. League scoring system(affects projecting fantasy points)
b. League size(number of teams)
c. Starting lineup requirements
4) Indicates which player will add the most fantasy football value to your team at any point during your draft.
Here's how to create fantasy football draft value sheets:
Develop player ranking lists for each position(see How to Create Your Own Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheet for more info).
Determine the total number of starters in your league for a specific position.
Multiply the number of teams in your league by the required number of starters for the specific position.
Find the lowest ranked starter for the specific position.
For the specific position take the resulting number from the previous step and scan down your ranking list until
you come to the lowest ranked starter. Make note of that player's projected fantasy points.
Subtract the projected fantasy points of the lowest ranked starter from the projected fantasy points of all the other players at the specific position.
Repeat this process for all other positions.
Combine all of your fantasy football draft value lists into one.
Sort the players from highest value to lowest value.
Scan down the list highlighting players as you go. Use a different color for each position. This will allow you to easily distinguish between positions.
You now have one list to work from that indicates the most valuable player available at any given time during your draft.
There are alternatives to using the total number of starters for the baseline at each position. You could also use the total number of players to be taken at a given position, an average of all the starters at a given position, an average of all the players at a given position, or a formula that you devise that you believe generates reliable fantasy football draft value for each player.
To maximize the effectiveness of drafting for value, you must realize the order the players are ranked in is not necessarily the order that you should draft them in. You must consider your draft position, your roster and starting lineup needs, your opponents' roster and starting lineup needs, and the projected fantasy points hidden behind the fantasy draft value of each player. Follow the link below about fantasy football draft strategy to find an article about drafting with tiers which allows you to compare fantasy football draft value for each player alongside their respective projected fantasy points.
Back to Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
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Here are the next 3 QBs & WRs available on your draft sheet:
QB1 - 280 projected fantasy points
QB2 - 277
QB3 - 275
WR1 - 130
WR2 - 105
WR3 - 104
So if you were fully intent on drafting a QB with your next pick, you would most likely select QB1 and not even glance at the available WR. That is a poor draft strategy and here's why:
The projected drop-off between QB1 and QB3 is 5 fantasy points.
The projected drop-off between WR1 and WR2 is 25 fantasy points.
It's unlikely that 2 of the 3 owners that pick after you in the 5th round(and before you in the 6th) will select another QB. Those owners will probably be looking to fill out their starting corps of WR.
So why hand one of those owners the last WR before a large drop-off in fantasy points when you can scoop him up and then come back in the 6th round and still get QB1 or a QB of almost equal potential? Let's play the numbers game:
Let's say you take QB1 in the 5th round. The next owner selects WR1. 5 more picks go by. WR3 happens to still be available so you grab him with your 6th round pick. Add up the fantasy points to get 384.
Now let's say you took WR1 in the 5th round. The next owner takes QB1 as his starting QB. As expected the next 5 picks go by with no more QBs taken. You take QB2 with your 6th round pick. Add up the fantasy points to get 407.
So it's obvious that you would be building a stronger squad by selecting WR1 with your 5th round pick. The question is how to recognize these types of situations ahead of time so that you are ready to make this kind of move when it's your turn to make a pick. The answer is fantasy football draft value.
The fantasy football value system:
1) Compares players of the same position.
2) Compares all players from all positions available in a fantasy draft.
3) Utilizes the following variables:
a. League scoring system(affects projecting fantasy points)
b. League size(number of teams)
c. Starting lineup requirements
4) Indicates which player will add the most fantasy football value to your team at any point during your draft.
Here's how to create fantasy football draft value sheets:
Develop player ranking lists for each position(see How to Create Your Own Fantasy Draft Cheat Sheet for more info).
Determine the total number of starters in your league for a specific position.
Multiply the number of teams in your league by the required number of starters for the specific position.
Find the lowest ranked starter for the specific position.
For the specific position take the resulting number from the previous step and scan down your ranking list until
you come to the lowest ranked starter. Make note of that player's projected fantasy points.
Subtract the projected fantasy points of the lowest ranked starter from the projected fantasy points of all the other players at the specific position.
Repeat this process for all other positions.
Combine all of your fantasy football draft value lists into one.
Sort the players from highest value to lowest value.
Scan down the list highlighting players as you go. Use a different color for each position. This will allow you to easily distinguish between positions.
You now have one list to work from that indicates the most valuable player available at any given time during your draft.
There are alternatives to using the total number of starters for the baseline at each position. You could also use the total number of players to be taken at a given position, an average of all the starters at a given position, an average of all the players at a given position, or a formula that you devise that you believe generates reliable fantasy football draft value for each player.
To maximize the effectiveness of drafting for value, you must realize the order the players are ranked in is not necessarily the order that you should draft them in. You must consider your draft position, your roster and starting lineup needs, your opponents' roster and starting lineup needs, and the projected fantasy points hidden behind the fantasy draft value of each player. Follow the link below about fantasy football draft strategy to find an article about drafting with tiers which allows you to compare fantasy football draft value for each player alongside their respective projected fantasy points.
Back to Fantasy Football Draft Strategy
Back to Fantasy Football Strategy home page
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